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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-11 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110833 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 The system has lacked significant organized deep convection for some time now, and therefore it has degenerated into a post-tropical low pressure system. The maximum sustained winds are estimated, perhaps generously, at 30 kt over the Atlantic waters well to the southeast of the center. Continued weakening is likely, and the cyclone should dissipate over eastern Canada by late Sunday. The low is moving just east of due north or around 010/15 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move between a mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and a trough near the Great Lakes until it loses its identity. This is the last advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 42.4N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days. Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-07-11 10:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-11 10:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110831 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N 73.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-07-11 05:16:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 683 WTPZ45 KNHC 110316 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various estimates. Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general, the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days. Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific. After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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