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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-14 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140832 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Satellite images show that the center of the tropical depression is exposed well to the east-northeast of its decaying mid-level circulation and any scant remaining convection. A pair of recent scatterometer passes indicate that the current wind speed is not more than 25 kt, so that value is used for this advisory. While the system still has a day or so of marginally conducive environmental conditions, the current displacement of the low- and mid-level centers suggests that the depression is unlikely to strengthen. Thus, little change in intensity is forecast through today, and some weakening is likely on Wednesday and Thursday as the cyclone encounters cooler water and higher shear. The timing of remnant low status has been moved to Wednesday since the small, poorly organized depression is expected to fall apart quickly in a more hostile environment. The cyclone continues moving westward and is forecast to move a little faster in that general direction by late today due to the effects of a strong ridge. The most significant change to the forecast is that almost all of the guidance is north of the previous model cycle, so the NHC track prediction is shifted in that direction. None of the models show a closed low after 48 hours, so dissipation is shown after that time, which makes sense given the expected fragility of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.2N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-14 10:30:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140830 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 120.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.2N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-14 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Deep convection associated with the depression has decreased substantially since the last advisory, particularly during the last 3 hours. At 00Z, microwave, visible, and IR imagery showed the depression had a small but well-defined center with a small area of deep convection west of its center. Most satellite-based intensity estimates at that time were 35 kt, which would typically support naming the system as a tropical storm. Since that time, however, it appears that nearly all of the deep convection has dissipated and it is likely that the intensity estimates would be lower if they were valid now. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory, but it is certainly possible that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. The NHC forecast is largely unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to move generally westward for the next day or two, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north and low-level easterly flow. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but significant strengthening is not expected. An increase of southwesterly shear and cool SSTs should cause the cyclone to become a remnant low and then dissipate within about 3 days. The track and intensity guidance is all in good agreement and confidence in the NHC forecast is fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-14 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-13 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 719 WTPZ41 KNHC 132034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional, microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12 hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA. The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18 hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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