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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-29 10:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 034 WTNT45 KNHC 290856 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Depression Ten continues to struggle against 25-30 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear, as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS guidance. Convection has thus remained displaced primarily to the southeast, though with some recent cells trying to develop closer to the center. The most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt with the objective ADT estimate at T2.3/33 kt. Given the disorganized nature of the current structure on IR satellite, I have elected to stay on the conservative side of these estimates and hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression continues to move toward the north at 360/9 kt. A large weakness in the mid-level ridging, due to a strong upper-tropospheric trough, will allow the depression to continue moving northward in the short-term, though there may be some occasional eastward bends as downshear convection tugs at the low-level vortex of the system. However by 72 h, some mid-level ridging is expected to build back in, allowing the track to shift a bit more leftward to the north-northwest after this point. The track guidance has not shifted much over the forecast period, and the latest NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous one, continuing to favor a blend of the the consensus aids (HCCA, TVCN). The poor current structure of the depression, under high shear importing dry air, argues against much short term intensification. However, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance still suggests a brief respite in the shear between 12-24 hours. For this reason, the NHC intensity forecast still shows some slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours. Another round of 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear between 24-48 hours is then expected to keep the system in check, and it remains possible that the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low over this time period. However, by 72 hours, the upper-level trough shearing the system is forecast to cut-off to the southwest, and this will shift the upper-level flow from northwesterly to southeasterly, which should provide a more favorable environment for strengthening. Thus, gradual strengthening is shown beginning in 72 hours extending through the end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast, favoring the more pessimistic ECMWF guidance versus the more aggressive GFS and regional hurricane models. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter portion of this forecast since it is unclear how much of the cyclone will survive the current unfavorable environment during the next 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.3N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-08-29 10:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290855 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA COAST MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 89.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-29 10:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-08-29 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290852 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 There have been no recent in-situ observations for estimating the intensity of Nora, but the cyclone is still fairly well-organized on satellite images. Taking a blend of T- and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS still supports keeping the system as a hurricane at this time. Center fixes indicate that Nora is moving a little west of due north at a decreased forward speed, or around 350/9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days, on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. This would take Nora over the eastern part of the Gulf of California, but very near the coast of mainland Mexico over the next few days. The track guidance has shifted somewhat to the east, and now suggests that it is a very distinct possibility that the system will move inland much sooner than shown by the latest NHC track forecast. The future intensity of Nora is of course highly dependent on how soon the center moves inland. The official intensity forecast assumes that the system will remain just offshore so that only slow weakening will occur during the next 72 hours or so. This is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus guidance. Alternatively, Nora may move inland sooner than indicated, in which case the system would probably dissipate in 2 to 3 days or less. Obviously, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the weekend and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-08-29 10:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290850 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 105.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 105.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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