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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-08-29 04:59:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290259 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Surface data from Mexico, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and microwave imagery from an 2344 UTC SSMIS indicate that the center of Nora moved over the far northwestern coast of Jalisco earlier this evening. Since then, the cloud pattern of the hurricane has degraded, but not enough to bring the latest Dvorak estimates below hurricane strength. The advisory intensity is therefore set at 65 kt based on the assumption that interaction with land has caused weakening, however there is low confidence in this assessment. The ever-so-slight rightward deviation from the forecast track that brought Nora inland, at least briefly, highlights the sensitivity of the system's future to its exact track. A sizable portion of the latest dynamical guidance, including the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models indicate that Nora will move inland tonight or early Sunday and dissipate. All three models also indicate it could reform over the Gulf of California in a few days. Other models, like the UKMET and CMC global models maintain Nora as a coherent tropical cyclone much longer. While the models can easily flip flop from run to run, the NHC forecast cannot drastically change solutions so cavalierly. Therefore, the official forecast is based on the condition that Nora will stay far enough offshore to persist as a tropical cyclone. Regardless of its exact state, Nora is forecast to turn toward the northwest on Sunday and then move along the coast toward northern Mexico early next week. This general solution is supported by all of the available guidance. A slight eastward adjustment has been made to the NHC track forecast to account for the slightly east initial position. Given Nora's recent movement over land, the intensity forecast has been lowered substantially at all forecast hours, but still maintains Nora near hurricane strength for the next couple of days. This is well above the most recent intensity consensus, which is heavily influenced by the dynamical models that move Nora inland. If it doesn't move inland sooner, Nora will likely quickly weaken as it moves permanently inland by around 96 h, and become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the weekend, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next week. 3. Nora is forecast to continue moving northward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 21.3N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 23.7N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 26.8N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 28.6N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0000Z 30.2N 110.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-29 04:58:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290258 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N 107.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.6N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 105.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 11

2021-08-29 04:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290250 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Ida earlier this evening and found that the maximum winds were still around 90 kt. Although the peak winds appear to have leveled off for now, the minimum pressure has continued to fall and was down to 966 mb at the last pass through the center an hour or two ago. In fact, the pressure has been dropping by about 2 mb per hour based on the aircraft data. In addition, tail Doppler Radar data from the aircraft indicate that the vortex has become more symmetric and that the inner core has contracted from the mission earlier today. These are signals that Ida is poised to strengthen further, and based on recent satellite images it appears that strengthening is imminent. Flight-level and SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum. The tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 120 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 35 n mi from the eye. Ida continues to move steadily to the northwest at about 14 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast rationale. A subtropical ridge situated near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward during the next day or two. This feature should continue to steer Ida northwestward toward the Louisiana coast. The latest runs of the numerical models bring the center of Ida to southeast or south-central Louisiana Sunday afternoon. Although landfall is not expected for about 18 hours, impacts will begin well before that time. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin overnight, therefore, all preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous one through landfall. After Ida moves inland, a turn to the north and then the northeast is expected as the storm moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of the ridge. Ida remains over waters with high oceanic heat content, and in an atmospheric environment of low wind shear and abundant moisture. These conditions, combined with the improved structure of the hurricane, should allow Ida to rapidly intensify until it makes landfall. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast holds steady and brings Ida to a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After the storm moves inland on Sunday, rapid weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, drier air and some increase in wind shear. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 27.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-08-29 04:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 023 WTNT41 KNHC 290249 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 Before sunset this evening, visible satellite images showed that a well-defined low level circulation was developing in association with the disturbance over the subtropical central Atlantic. However, up until a couple of hours ago, the system lacked sufficient organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone by definition. Since that time, a deep convective burst has increased in size near, and to the east of the estimated center. In addition, a curved band has begun to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Based on this increase in convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven. There was no ASCAT data this evening over the cyclone, so the initial intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest Dvorak CI number from TAFB. The initial motion of the depression is 050/10 kt. The cyclone is embedded in southwesterly flow to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough and an associated cold front. This flow is forecast to increase as the cold front approaches the cyclone, resulting in the system accelerating northeastward over the next day or so. Once the cyclone interacts with this frontal boundary in a couple of days, a turn to the north is expected. The model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the consensus tracks. Baroclinic forcing and upper-level diffluence should aid in intensifying the depression over the next 24 h, despite increasing shear. By 36 h, the combination of interaction with the cold front and passage over much cooler waters should result in extratropical transition. The system is then forecast to become absorbed by a larger low pressure system by midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is near the various multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 33.0N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 11

2021-08-29 04:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 380 WTNT24 KNHC 290248 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 88.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 88.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 88.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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