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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-26 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE AND POWERFUL LORENZO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 16.5, -40.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 17
2019-09-26 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL LORENZO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 40.8W ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 40.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight, and fluctuations in intensity are expected Friday and Saturday. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the northeastern coast of South Americas beginning tonight and affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday, These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-09-26 22:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 262046 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 40.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 40.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 40.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.6N 43.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 43.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.9N 43.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 42.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N 35.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 40.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-26 16:54:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 14:54:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 14:54:42 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-26 16:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z. Around that time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery. Raw Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the Dvorak Technique suggest that the maximum winds have increased to near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently received scatterometer overpass. The initial motion is 295/11. Lorenzo is approaching a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance models are in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve through the break during the forecast period. There are no significant changes to the guidance since the last advisory, and there are no significant changes to the forecast track either. Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-36 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h. By 120 h, the hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies. While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 40.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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