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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 18
2019-09-27 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 41.5W ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 41.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn to the northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Friday night. A slow weakening trend is expected over the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the northeastern coast of South America beginning tonight, and will affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 18
2019-09-27 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270231 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-26 22:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 20:49:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 21:31:25 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-26 22:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262048 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo has continued to intensify this afternoon, as the 20 n mi wide eye has become better defined and the cloud tops in the eyewall have gotten colder. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 115-125 kt range, so the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent outflow in all directions except to the west, where it is starting to interact with an upper-level trough. The hurricane has turned toward the northwest since the last advisory, with the 12-h average motion now 310/10 kt and the shorter term motion is even more toward the north. Lorenzo is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance models remain in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve through the break during the forecast period. After 24-36 h, the guidance has shifted a little more to the right, and this part of the new track forecast has been nudged a little to the right. Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the current intensification should end soon as the actual intensity approaches or reaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-24 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo's interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough should increase during recurvature, which should cause increased shear and a gradual weakening of the cyclone. As Lorenzo subsequently moves northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies, increased shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should lead to at least a continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 40.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.6N 41.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.6N 43.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 21.3N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 42.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 30.5N 39.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 35.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-09-26 22:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 262047 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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