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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-19 05:08:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Jul 2015 02:34:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Jul 2015 03:04:43 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-07-19 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190233 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 Dolores has been without organized deep convection for 12 hours, and the center is now more than 150 miles away from the remaining shallow to moderate convection. Based on the lack of convective organization, Dolores is now a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory. With even colder waters ahead, the remnant low should gradually spin down and dissipate in 2 or 3 days offshore of southern California. The initial motion is 335/14, as the cyclone has accelerated since the previous advisory. Dolores should continue moving north- northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and then turn northward and decelerate prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is along but faster than the previous one and is close to the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions. Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona, southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please refer to statements from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 25.6N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 19/1200Z 27.5N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z 30.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 32.1N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 33.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-19 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 the center of DOLORES was located near 25.6, -119.0 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Public Advisory Number 31
2015-07-19 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ...DOLORES NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 119.0W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolores was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 119.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Monday night or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores continue to affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to reach the coast of southern California. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For additional information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Dolores. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2015-07-19 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190232 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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