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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 26
2015-07-17 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Dolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and northwest of its low-level center. The maximum winds continue to decrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers. A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given the instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of 50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection. Colder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are expected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is forecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant low by day 3. The official intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus. However, the recent rate of weakening has been faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low sooner than shown below. Dolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term motion is 285/9 kt. The cyclone will be approaching the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which will cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by 48 hours. Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level steering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well southwest of the southern California coast. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-17 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of DOLORES was located near 21.3, -116.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 26
2015-07-17 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ...DOLORES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 116.1W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 116.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores should become a tropical depression by Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are expected to reach the coast of southern California later today and on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2015-07-17 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 26
2015-07-17 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 172032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 116.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 116.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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