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Tropical Storm DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-17 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 14:36:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 14:35:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-07-17 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 The center of Dolores is now over water colder than 26C, and deep convection continues to gradually wane. Dvorak CI numbers ranged from 55-77 kt at 1200 UTC, and the advisory intensity is set at 60 kt, which is in agreement with the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate. Steady weakening is expected to continue due to even colder water and an increase in vertical shear in about 48 hours, and Dolores is likely to become a remnant low in a few days. Dissipation is now forecast by day 5 based on the latest global model guidance. The initial motion is 295/8 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific Ocean should continue steering Dolores west-northwestward through tonight. Starting on Saturday, the cyclone will accelerate northwestward and north-northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge. By day 4, the remnant low will likely become nearly stationary well southwest of southern California due to weak low-level steering flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the model consensus and is not much different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 21.4N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 21.9N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 24.7N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 26.8N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 30.7N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z 31.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2015-07-17 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-17 16:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of DOLORES was located near 21.4, -115.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 25
2015-07-17 16:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 171435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 115.1W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 115.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are expected to reach the coast of southern California later today and on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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