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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-07-17 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Dolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a significant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the western semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the eyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted down to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a noticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which was likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has developed. However, this should just be a short term motion and a turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and then continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores skirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that extends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico and Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly initial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and the FSSE model. Dolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during the 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or so and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result should be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along with steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low pressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the ICON intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-17 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES WEAKENS SOME MORE... ...STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 the center of DOLORES was located near 20.8, -113.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 23
2015-07-17 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 ...DOLORES WEAKENS SOME MORE... ...STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 113.2W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 113.2 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion is should continue through Friday night. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores could become a tropical storm by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2015-07-17 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170234 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 23
2015-07-17 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 170233 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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