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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 30
2015-07-18 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ...DOLORES STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 118.4W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 118.4 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is likely to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores continue to affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to reach the coast of southern California. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For additional information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 30
2015-07-18 22:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 182032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 118.4W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 118.4W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-18 17:08:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 14:34:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 15:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-07-18 16:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181433 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 Dolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from the remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the warmer water to the south. Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt, and the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt. Cold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current weakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24 hours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern California coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS and the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN). Dolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of California. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift northward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for the recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very similar after 24 hours. This solution is very close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus. Moisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the southwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada. Please refer to statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-18 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 the center of DOLORES was located near 23.1, -118.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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