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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

2015-07-18 10:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180840 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-18 10:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TODAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 the center of DOLORES was located near 21.9, -117.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 28

2015-07-18 10:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180840 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ...DOLORES EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TODAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 117.4W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 117.4 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Dolores is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by late Saturday and become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores continue to affect portions of the the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are expected to reach the coast of southern California today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For additional information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 28

2015-07-18 10:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180839 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 117.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 117.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 119.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.4N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.5N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.3N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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