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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 25

2015-07-17 16:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 171435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.9N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.8N 120.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.7N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics

2015-07-17 11:11:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 09:01:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 09:06:49 GMT

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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 24

2015-07-17 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170850 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 The cloud pattern of Dolores has continued to deteriorate, with an eye no longer apparent, and the coverage and intensity of deep convection on the wane. The current intensity estimate is 70 kt which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. This may be generous, considering the data T-numbers from these agencies. The tropical cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures over the next few days, and into a more stable air mass. Additionally, the dynamical guidance shows a significant increase in vertical shear over Dolores in 48 to 72 hours. The official intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend, but is still somewhat higher than the latest intensity model consensus. With the eye no longer discernible, the center has become more difficult to track. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/9. Over the next several days, Dolores is expected to move along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending from the southwestern United States. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become steered by a cyclonic gyre to the southwest of southern California, and to move in a counterclockwise fashion. The official track forecast is near the dynamical model consensus and is similar to the previous NHC forecast. This is also between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 21.2N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 21.4N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 22.0N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 25.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z 29.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-17 10:48:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 the center of DOLORES was located near 21.2, -114.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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