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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 31
2015-07-19 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190231 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 119.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 119.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 27.5N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.2N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 32.1N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 119.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DOLORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-18 23:09:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 20:34:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 21:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 30
2015-07-18 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182034 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Dolores still has a band of tropical storm force winds within its eastern semicircle, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt. However, deep convection continues to weaken, and the center of the cyclone is now over sea surface temperatures between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius. Maximum surface winds should gradually decrease as the circulation spins down, and Dolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not regenerate deep convection near the center. Most of the global models then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the coast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated in the official forecast at that time. Dolores is now moving north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt, around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to steer the remnant low north-northwestward and then northward until dissipation. The track guidance envelope has shifted a bit eastward, and the official forecast follows that trend, lying just to the west of the various multi-model consensus solutions. Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona, southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please refer to statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2015-07-18 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 182033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-18 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 the center of DOLORES was located near 24.3, -118.4 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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