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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 29
2015-07-18 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ...DOLORES TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 118.0W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 118.0 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Dolores is expected to become a tropical depression later today and then a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores continue to affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to reach the coast of southern California. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For additional information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2015-07-18 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 29
2015-07-18 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 181432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 118.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 118.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 118.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-18 11:08:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 08:41:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 09:04:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-07-18 10:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180841 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 Dolores' cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory. The cyclone has been maintaining a small area of relatively shallow convection southwest of the partially exposed low-level center. An ASCAT pass at 0454 UTC showed peak winds of 34-kt winds over the western part of the circulation, and it is assumed that higher winds are still occurring closer to the center. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt to be consistent with the earlier ASCAT pass. The cyclone is temporarily passing over a narrow tongue of relatively warmer water but should reach much colder waters within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once this occurs, Dolores should lose any remaining convection and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day or so. The large circulation will take some time to spin down even without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/09. Global models show Dolores turning northwestward and north-northwestward within 24 hours as it is steered between a subtropical ridge over the southern United States and a mid- to upper-level trough offshore the California coast. Once the cyclone fully decouples and becomes shallow, it should decelerate and move northward or northeastward in the low- level flow prior to dissipation. The new track forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous one to be closer to the multi-model consensus. Moisture associated with Dolores should spread into southern and central California late this weekend and early next week, possibly triggering isolated areas of heavy rains across the region. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.9N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 25.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 27.4N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 29.5N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 31.3N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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