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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 27

2015-07-18 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.8W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.8W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 31.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-18 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of DOLORES was located near 21.8, -116.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 27

2015-07-18 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ...DOLORES GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 116.8W ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 116.8 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Dolores is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by late Saturday and become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are expected to reach the coast of southern California tonight and Saturday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. For additional information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2015-07-18 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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