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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-05 11:22:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 09:03:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 09:09:19 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-05 11:00:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 5 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.9, -138.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 20
2014-08-05 11:00:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050900 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 ...ISELLE SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 138.6W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.6 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ISELLE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-08-05 11:00:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050900 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.6W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.6W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 140.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.7N 142.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.3N 145.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.1N 149.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.7N 155.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 166.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 138.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-08-05 11:00:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050900 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 4(49) X(49) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) X(42) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 8(44) X(44) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 9(34) X(34) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 13(33) 1(34) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) X(26) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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