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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2014-11-03 03:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030254 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 34(35) 43(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 31(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)

2014-11-03 03:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VANCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 7:00 PM PST Sun Nov 2 the center of VANCE was located near 13.7, -109.6 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 16

2014-11-03 03:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030254 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 ...VANCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 109.6W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VANCE MAY INTENSIFY SOME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tags: number public advisory hurricane

Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 16

2014-11-03 03:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030254 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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