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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 18
2014-11-03 15:53:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031453 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 ...VANCE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING VERY SOON.... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 110.6W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY...AND STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-11-03 15:52:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 031452 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.6N 110.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-03 10:09:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 08:38:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 09:05:06 GMT
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-11-03 09:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030836 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity, with very cold-topped inner core convection. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, and the initial intensity is held at that value as well. Vance's upper-level outflow is becoming slightly impeded over its southwest quadrant, suggesting that southwesterly shear over the hurricane is already beginning to increase. The window of opportunity for additional strengthening is quickly closing, since the SHIPS model indicates the vertical shear increasing to 24 kt in 12 hours and to 30 kt in 24 hours. The NHC forecast shows only a slight increase in strength today, with a weakening trend beginning in 12-24 hours, and is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus. Although the track forecast brings the cyclone near the coast by 72 hours, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely hostile and the system should be reduced to remnant low or even completely dissipate by that time. There has been a little deceleration and the motion is now 320/12 kt. Over the next day or two, Vance should recurve around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then likely to move north-northeastward between the ridge and a trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. By the end of the forecast period, the motion could become erratic since the circulation will probably become quite shallow and be steered by the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional adjustments to the wind radii were done based on ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-11-03 09:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030834 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 80(81) 10(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 16(16) 22(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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