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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-03 09:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE MAINTAINING 105 MPH WINDS... As of 1:00 AM PST Mon Nov 3 the center of VANCE was located near 14.5, -110.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 17
2014-11-03 09:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 ...VANCE MAINTAINING 105 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 110.3W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VANCE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST THEREAFTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-11-03 09:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030832 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 110.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 110.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane VANCE Graphics
2014-11-03 04:10:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 03:00:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Nov 2014 03:05:17 GMT
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-11-03 03:59:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030258 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Vance has displayed a pinhole eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops both in microwave imagery and sporadically in visible/infrared imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB along with a 2124Z AMSU objective analysis from CIMSS indicates an intensity of 90 kt. The combination of very low vertical shear, quite moist and unstable thermodynamics, warm SSTs, and large upper-level divergence have contributed toward Vance's rapid intensification during the last 24 hours, during which time the maximum winds have doubled. Vince has about 12 hours of conducive conditions remaining before a high amplitude upper- to mid-level trough currently west of Baja California begins to adversely affect the tropical cyclone. Vertical shear should quickly ramp up while the moisture, convective instability, and upper-level divergence drop during the next two days. Vance is predicted to peak in intensity shortly followed by rapid weakening, most similar to the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models during the next 24 hours and to the IVCN multi-model consensus thereafter. This forecast is higher than that in the previous advisory due to the stronger initial intensity, but lower at days 2 and 3. Vance is moving 310 degrees at 15 kt, as it is being advected around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast. As the aforementioned trough digs southward, Vance should undergo recurvature beginning in about a day, at the very low latitude of about 18 North. The tropical cyclone should then turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday and start approaching southwestern Mexico. However, the shear should become so severe that the tropical cyclone is likely to decouple in about three days with the remnant low not quite reaching the coast. The NHC official track prediction is based upon the TVCE multi-model consensus, and is faster than the previous advisory but not as far northeast as the GFS-ECMWF combination. An alternative scenario is that Vance reaches the southwestern Mexican coast as a tropical storm in about three days, as seen in the deterministic ECMWF model run. However, given the quite hostile vertical shear conditions expected, and that the ECMWF solution appears to be an outlier compared to its ensemble members, this is not considered to be likely at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.7N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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