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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 35
2016-09-23 04:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230251 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Karl has become significantly better organized during the past 24 hours, with dropsonde data showing that a well-defined circulation now exists from the surface to 400 mb. The maximum flight-level winds were 56 kt at 8000 ft, and there were numerous SFMR surface wind estimates of 35-40 kt. The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 1001 mb based on a 1003 mb dropsonde with surface winds of 24 kt. Based on these data and observations from NOAA buoy 41049, the initial intensity is now 40 kt. Additional aircraft data should be available starting at about 0600 UTC. The initial motion is now 315/14 as Karl continues moving northwestward between the subtropical ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough north of Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas. During the next 24-36 hours, Karl should turn northward and then northeastward as it moves through a break in the ridge into the westerlies. Subsequently, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward. The model guidance is in excellent agreement with this scenario, although there remains some spread in the forecast forward speed late in the forecast period between the slower ECMWF and the other faster models. The new forecast track remains down the center of the guidance and overall is similar to the previous track. The new forecast track is shifted a little closer to Bermuda, with the closest approach now forecast between 24 and 36 hours. While there remain some differences in the model details, Karl is expected to move into an area of decreasing vertical shear during the next 48 hours, which should allow continued development. After that, the cyclone should begin extratropical transition, which is likely to be complete by 72 hours according the the latest dynamical model guidance. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and calls for Karl to steadily intensify to hurricane strength in about 48 hours, followed by rapid weakening after extratropical transition. The forecast also follows the dynamical models in calling for Karl to be absorbed by another extratropical low by 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 27.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 30.5N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 32.4N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 35.2N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 43.5N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0000Z 53.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2016-09-23 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 230250 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 2 36(38) 31(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-23 04:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22 the center of KARL was located near 27.0, -64.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 35
2016-09-23 04:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 ...KARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 64.0W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 64.0 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Friday, with a turn toward the northeast expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or to the east of Bermuda on Friday night or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl could become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A few hours ago, NOAA buoy 41049 reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Friday evening. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 35
2016-09-23 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 64.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 30SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 64.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.4N 65.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.4N 62.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.2N 57.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 43.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 53.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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