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Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-09-21 10:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210835 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 Karl's structure is very difficult to determine this morning. Satellite data indicate that the low-level center moved westward far away from the convection, and currently it is hard to say if Karl possess a closed circulation or not. Assuming that it still does, the maximum winds are estimated generously at 30 kt, since the cloud pattern has become less organized. I would not be surprised if early visible satellite images will reveal that the cyclone has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure. Global models have totally failed so far in forecasting the upper-level winds surrounding Karl. The upper-low near Karl which unanimously all models have been forecasting to weaken is still strong and producing shear over the cyclone. Given such a resilient shear pattern, additional weakening is anticipated today. However, most of the models are still predicting a favorable pattern for intensification, and on this basis as well as continuity, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening beyond 36 hours while Karl moves away from the hostile tropics. By the end of the forecast period, Karl should be rapidly losing tropical characteristics while it interacts with the mid-latitude flow. The initial motion is also highly uncertain, giving that we have been following the low-cloud swirl defining the alleged center. The best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Karl is approaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should result in a turn to the northwest and then north during the following two days. After that time, a sharp recurvature is anticipated around the northwestern portion of the subtropical high and ahead of a mid-latitude shortwave. This sharp recurvature is the solution provided by most of the track models, and the NHC forecast is in the middle if the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 57.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.9N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 23.0N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 25.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 27.0N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 30.0N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 35.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 43.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-21 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL LOSING THE BATTLE AGAINST THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILING IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 21 the center of KARL was located near 20.2, -57.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression KARL Public Advisory Number 28
2016-09-21 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 ...KARL LOSING THE BATTLE AGAINST THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILING IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 57.6W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 57.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), but a west-northwest to northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is possible today, but some restrengthening is forecast to occur in a day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-09-21 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 210833 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 15(38) X(38) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Advisory Number 28
2016-09-21 10:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.6W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.6W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N 59.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 35.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 43.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 57.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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