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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2016-09-22 22:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 222051 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 6( 6) 33(39) 13(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER/BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-22 22:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT KARL IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22 the center of KARL was located near 25.5, -63.2 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 34
2016-09-22 22:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222050 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT KARL IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 63.2W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 63.2 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), but it is expected to turn northward on Friday and northeastward on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl is expected to pass near or to the east of Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Friday evening. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Campbell/Rubin-Oster/Berg
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 34
2016-09-22 22:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222049 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.8N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.8N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.8N 64.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.7N 61.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 39.7N 47.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 49.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER/BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-22 21:28:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL'S INTENSITY JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22 the center of KARL was located near 25.3, -62.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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