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Tropical Depression KARL Public Advisory Number 33
2016-09-22 16:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 ...KARL STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 62.3W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 62.3 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl is expected to pass near or to the east of Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Friday evening. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Campbell/Rubin-Oster
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Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Advisory Number 33
2016-09-22 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221446 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 62.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 62.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.3N 63.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.2N 64.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.0N 50.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 48.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER
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Tropical Depression KARL Graphics
2016-09-22 11:08:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 08:44:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 09:04:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression KARL Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-09-22 10:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220842 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 Although Karl's cloud pattern is better organized than 24 hours ago, the cyclone lacks an inner core, and there is no new data or intensity estimates suggesting that the winds have increased. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Karl is heading toward even warmer waters, and the shear is expected to be light for the next day or two. These conditions should favor some slight strengthening during that period. Model guidance suggests that additional intensification will likely occur after Karl's recurvature in a couple of days. This is reflected in the NHC forecast which bring Karl to hurricane status as it moves northeastward over the open Atlantic, and before it becomes extratropical. Karl continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is about to reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force Karl to turn northward in about a day or so. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to turn sharply toward the northeast while it becomes embedded within the southwesterly flow associated with an amplifying mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast follows very closely the multimodel consensus, and is in the middle of the guidance envelope, which in fact is tightly packed at least for the next 3 days. Although Karl is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic southeast of Bermuda, interests in that island should monitor the progress of Karl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 24.0N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 25.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 27.0N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 29.3N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 31.5N 63.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 36.5N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 47.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2016-09-22 10:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 220842 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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