je.st
news
Tag: karl
Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-21 04:39:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Sep 2016 02:39:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Sep 2016 02:37:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-09-21 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 Karl continues to struggle this evening. Satellite images indicate that the low-level center of the storm is completely exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Karl earlier this evening and found that the maximum winds were still around 35 kt, though a very recent ASCAT pass suggests that this estimate could be a bit generous. Dropsonde data and model vertical cross sections indicate that Karl is being affected by mid-level southwesterly flow and dry air induced by a cut-off low pressure system located a few hundred miles to the west. These unfavorable atmospheric conditions have been affecting the cyclone during the past several days and until these conditions abate, little change in the structure or strength of Karl is anticipated. The models insist that environment should become less hostile in about 24 h, and Karl should have its best opportunity to intensify late this week and this weekend when it moves into an area of baroclinic forcing. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm has moved basically due west during the past 24 hours. A turn toward the northwest should occur on Wednesday when the cyclone nears the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge, followed by a northward motion in about 3 days when Karl rounds the ridge and moves into a pronounced weakness. By the end of the forecast period, a sharp increase in speed and turn to the northeast are expected as a large-scale mid-latitude trough picks up the tropical cyclone. There are significant forward speed differences in the models associated with how Karl interacts with the large-scale trough in the 3 to 5 day time frame, and the NHC forecast is of low confidence during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.9N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.9N 58.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 24.5N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 29.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 39.2N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
karl
Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2016-09-21 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 210237 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 29(49) 1(50) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-21 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT KARL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of KARL was located near 19.9, -56.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 27
2016-09-21 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT KARL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 56.7W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 56.7 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] next »