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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 27
2016-09-21 04:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 56.7W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 60SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 56.7W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 56.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 58.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.9N 60.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 62.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 39.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-20 22:46:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 20:46:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 15:30:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-09-20 22:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202044 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 Karl's center had lost some definition throughout the day, but deep convection has redeveloped near the center late in the afternoon. Dvorak Current Intensity estimates were lowered to 2.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T3.2. A NOAA P-3 flight currently conducting a research mission into Karl has not yet found tropical-storm-force winds, but it has not sampled the entire circulation yet. The initial intensity is therefore held at 35 kt pending additional data from the P-3. The minimum pressure is lowered to 1005 mb based on dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet, which is also flying near Karl. Little to no change is expected in the strength of Karl over the next 24 hours as the influence of an upper low continues to shear out the western side of the storm. The global models indicate that the shear should relax in the next 24 to 36 hours allowing a slight strengthening in that period. As Karl rounds the mid-level ridge it will find itself in a more favorable environment with warm SSTs and lower shear. An increased rate of intensification should take place in the 48 to 72 hour time frame, and Karl is expected to reach hurricane strength by the end of that period. The official intensity forecast has been nudged slightly downward based on the latest guidance, however it is still on the upper end of the guidance spread. The center of Karl continues pushing west near the 20th parallel with an initial motion of 275 at 12 kt. Karl is expected to make a turn toward the west-northwest shortly and should reach the western edge of the subtropical high during the next 48 hours, turning to the northwest by day 2 and to the north by day 4. Karl will then accelerate to the northeast as it gets picked up by the westerlies ahead of an upper level trough. Global model guidance continues to show considerable spread into the day 5 period. The ECMWF is significantly slower than the other models because the upper level trough does not pick up Karl. The official track forecast follows close to the previous forecast and remains near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.1N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.8N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 22.3N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 24.1N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 25.6N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 28.5N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 32.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Krekeler/Berg
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2016-09-20 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 202041 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 41(55) 3(58) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 3(30) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) $$ FORECASTER KREKELER/BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-20 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL MOVING WESTWARD... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY IN THE STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of KARL was located near 20.1, -55.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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