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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-19 16:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 14:55:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 09:05:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-09-19 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191448 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016 Visible satellite imagery shows Karl consists of a swirl of low clouds with nearly all of the associated deep convection located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The structure has changed relatively little from six hours ago, and the initial wind speed remains 35 kt based on the Dvorak Current Intensity estimate from TAFB. Karl is still being affected by 10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear, and with the mid-level relative humidity in the surrounding environment only 40-50 percent, the cyclone continues to struggle to produce deep convection near its center and over the western part of the circulation. However, the SHIPS guidance indicates that the shear should continue to decrease during the next few days, and mid-level moisture is likely to increase over 60 percent by day 3. Therefore, only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 48 hours, but that should be followed by quicker intensification on days 3-5, with Karl still expected to reach hurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period. The updated official intensity forecast is very close to the SHIPS guidance for the entire forecast period, and it is just slightly below the previous forecast after 24 hours. The initial motion is just a little slower at 275/11 kt. Karl's westward motion is the result of it being positioned south of the Bermuda-Azores high. However, the cyclone is expected to reach a break in the ridge located over the western Atlantic in a few days, which will cause it to turn northwestward by day 3 and then northward by day 5. The track models are tightly clustered through day 3 before Karl makes its turn, but there is more spread on days 4 and 5 regarding where the turn will occur. The GFS and GFS ensemble mean both take Karl farther west before it turns toward the north, while the bulk of the other models make the turn east of the previous forecast track. For the sake of continuity, the updated official track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, and it lies relatively close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.6N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 18.9N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 52.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.4N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.6N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.5N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 27.5N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 29.5N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2016-09-19 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 191448 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-19 16:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 19 the center of KARL was located near 18.6, -48.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 21
2016-09-19 16:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016 ...KARL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 48.3W ABOUT 895 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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