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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2016-09-20 10:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 200855 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 21(63) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 14(33) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)

2016-09-20 10:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KARL STRUGGLING AGAIN... ...STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of KARL was located near 20.2, -52.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 24

2016-09-20 10:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...KARL STRUGGLING AGAIN... ...STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 52.8W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 52.8 West. Karl is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion at a slightly forward speed is expected to continue through late Wednesday, followed by a northwestward turn after that. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but some strengthening is likely to begin by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 24

2016-09-20 10:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200854 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 52.8W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 52.8W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 52.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.9N 54.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 59.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.4N 64.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 30.3N 64.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 34.0N 57.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 52.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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