je.st
news
Tag: karl
Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 26
2016-09-20 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...KARL MOVING WESTWARD... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY IN THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 55.2W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 55.2 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a slightly increased forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (220 km) to the north of the center. Dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Krekeler/Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 26
2016-09-20 22:40:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202040 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 55.2W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 30SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 55.2W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.8N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.3N 59.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.6N 63.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 32.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KREKELER/BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
karl
Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-20 17:06:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 14:39:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 15:06:34 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-09-20 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201436 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 Karl's center remains exposed to the southwest of the deep convection, as it appears that the cyclone has been unable to escape the influence of a mid-/upper-level low to its west. Dvorak Current Intensity estimates remain 3.0 from TAFB and 2.5 from SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T2.5. The initial intensity is therefore held at 35 kt. SHIPS and UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that the vertical shear that has been affecting Karl has not yet decreased, but it is now southerly at around 15 kt. The global models continue to indicate that the shear should decrease during the next few days, but this probably won't happen until Karl becomes more separated from the upper-level low. The thermodynamic environment has improved slightly since yesterday, as the cyclone appears to be associated with a large moisture envelope with mid-level relative humidities increasing into the 50 percent range. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours, but after that time intensification is expected due to warm SSTs, more moisture, and lower shear. The official intensity forecast continues to show Karl as a hurricane in the 3-5 day range, but the updated forecast has been nudged downward slightly based on the latest guidance. The new forecast is very close to SHIPS guidance and is near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Karl's center has been straddling the 20th parallel, but the 12-hour motion estimate is 275/15 kt. Karl should be reaching the western extent of the subtropical high during the next 48 hours, and its motion should therefore turn northwestward by day 2 and then northward by day 4. After that time, the cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the northeast when it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a trough. The cross-track spread in the guidance has decreased since yesterday for the time period when Karl recurves, although there are significant speed differences after recurvature. Most notably, the ECMWF is significantly slower than the other models and doesn't show Karl being picked up as quickly by the mid-latitude trough. To split the difference, the updated track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.0N 54.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.7N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 21.9N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 25.1N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 27.6N 65.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 31.0N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 36.5N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Krekeler
Tags: number
discussion
storm
karl
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-20 16:35:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of KARL was located near 20.0, -54.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
karl
tropical
Sites : [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] next »