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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 23
2016-09-20 04:43:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200242 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 Karl is a little better organized tonight. An area of deep convection has been persisting during the past several hours, and microwave images indicate that the center is located near the southwestern edge of the convective area. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 40 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Karl is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and it is being steered by the flow on the south side of a high pressure system over the subtropical Atlantic. The tropical cyclone is expected to move near the southwestern periphery of the high in a couple of days and then head toward a pronounced weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should result in Karl turning northwestward in about 48 hours, with a gradual turn to the north and northeast expected in 4 to 5 days. Although the models agree on the overall theme, there is a fair amount of spread in the guidance associated with where and when Karl begins to recurve. The NHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids. The vertical wind shear that has been affecting Karl for the past several days appears to be letting up some, and the SHIPS model suggests that shear should be generally light during the next 5 days. In addition, Karl is currently over SSTs of around 28 deg C, and it is expected to move over even warmer waters throughout the forecast period. The one unfavorable parameter for intensification is the dry mid-level environment surrounding the tropical storm, but some of the guidance suggests that the air mass could moisten ahead of the system later this week. Based on these large scale conditions, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or so, followed by a faster rate of intensification thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is on the conservative side of the guidance at the longer range forecast points. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.7N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 21.3N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 22.4N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 23.9N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 26.7N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 32.3N 60.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-20 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 19 the center of KARL was located near 19.7, -50.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 23
2016-09-20 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 ...KARL BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 50.5W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 50.5 West. Karl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur by late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2016-09-20 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 200240 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 26(56) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 23
2016-09-20 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200239 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 30SE 30SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 54.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N 57.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.9N 59.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.7N 63.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.3N 60.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 50.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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