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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-19 22:47:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 20:47:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 15:05:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2016-09-19 22:42:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 192042 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 29(49) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG/PETERSEN/CHENARD
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-19 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 19 the center of KARL was located near 19.3, -49.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 22
2016-09-19 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 ...KARL TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 49.2W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 49.2 West. Karl is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Petersen/Chenard
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 22
2016-09-19 22:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192041 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 49.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 30SE 30SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 49.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 51.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 53.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.9N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.9N 62.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 49.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/PETERSEN/CHENARD
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