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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 21
2016-09-19 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191447 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 48.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..290NE 30SE 30SW 290NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 48.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.9N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 52.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 55.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 57.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 62.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-19 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 08:40:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 08:38:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2016-09-19 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 190839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-19 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 19 the center of KARL was located near 18.2, -47.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 20
2016-09-19 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016 ...KARL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 47.7W ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 47.7 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today or on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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