je.st
news
Tag: karl
Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 25
2016-09-20 16:35:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...KARL MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 54.3W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 54.3 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected later today through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Krekeler
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2016-09-20 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 201435 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 40(48) 11(59) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG/KREKELER
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 25
2016-09-20 16:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201435 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 54.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 30SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 54.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 58.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.1N 62.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.6N 65.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 31.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/KREKELER
Tags: number
storm
advisory
karl
Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-20 11:10:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 08:56:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 09:06:36 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
karl
tropical
Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-09-20 10:59:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200858 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 Karl's satellite appearance late yesterday gave the impression that it had increased some in organization, with the low-level center partially underneath a large mass of deep convection. Since that time, the low-level center appears to have outrun the convection, becoming exposed well to the west of the remnant convective mass whose cloud top temperatures have warmed significantly. The cloud pattern is typical of a tropical cyclone undergoing significant westerly shear. Dvorak classifications have decreased to T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and on this basis, the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt. The initial motion is a faster and a more westerly 290/15. Karl should continue to be steered generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of well-defined low- to mid-level subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days. The cyclone should move into weakness in the ridge along 65W in 48 to 72 hours, which should result in a gradual turn toward the north with a considerable decrease in forward speed by day 4. Around 96 hours, Karl should become susceptible to the mid-latitude westerly flow after it crosses 30N as it begins to undergo a sharp recurvature. The models vary tremendously on how quickly Karl will recurve by day 5, with the GFS-based guidance whisking the cyclone rapidly northeastward in response to a deep-layer trough moving through the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. The ECMWF and the majority of its ensemble members show Karl lagging way behind before being ejected northeastward by a slowly amplifying trough. The new track forecast is shifted to the left and is slightly faster through day 3, largely because of the initial re-positioning of the cyclone. After that time, a compromise between the much faster GFS-based guidance and the ECMWF results in a slower and somewhat more eastward forecast track. Karl can be seen approaching an upper-tropospheric cold low in water vapor imagery. The unfavorable juxtaposition of Karl and this feature should not result in much intensification for about the next 36 hours, since the flow over Karl is convergent and there is some deep-layer westerly shear. This is the rationale for keeping the short-term intensity forecast low. By 48 hours and beyond, the shear is forecast to have finally decreased while the cyclone reaches near 30 deg C waters, and intensification is likely. With the flow becoming increasingly divergent over Karl around the time it recurves in 3 to 4 days, the intensification could occur more rapidly than this forecast indicates, and there is some chance that Karl could become a major hurricane. Late in the period, increasing southwesterly shear could become a mitigating factor and the intensity is shown to be leveling off by day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the multi-model consensus initially and about the same or a little lower at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.2N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.9N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 21.7N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 23.0N 59.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 24.7N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 27.4N 64.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 30.3N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 34.0N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
storm
karl
Sites : [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] next »