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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-09-04 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 264 FONT11 KNHC 041436 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-09-04 16:36:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 805 WTNT21 KNHC 041436 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 42.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 42.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 42.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 44.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 46.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.4N 48.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 42.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-04 10:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 08:39:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 09:22:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-04 10:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 770 WTNT41 KNHC 040838 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 Florence's cloud pattern has changed very little during the past several hours, with the exception of a possible small Central Dense Overcast developing just to the east of the center. An earlier AMSR2 overpass revealed a rather obvious tilt toward the east-northeast, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear. The initial intensity is held a 60 kt, and is supported by the Dvorak subjective and objective T-numbers. Florence should exhibit little change in strength during the next 24 hours or so, as the cyclone traverses marginally warm sea surface temperatures and is influenced by modest west-southwesterly shear. Slight weakening is expected during the mid- forecast period as the shear gradually increases with time. Afterward, the upper-level wind environment should become a little more favorable and, at the same time, Florence will be moving back over warmer SSTs. Consequently, the cyclone should gradually strengthen through day 5. This forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the NOAA-HCCA guidance. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward for the next 48 hours by a mid- to upper tropospheric ridge anchored to the north, followed by a northwestward turn around the 72 hr period as it enters a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge. A rather large spread in the global and hurricane models remains particularly beyond day 4, however, the consensus models and the global ensemble means have have been fairly consistent from run to run. This forecast is just a bit to the north of the previous advisory and just south of the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.9N 43.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.8N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.9N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 25.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 27.1N 55.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 29.1N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-04 10:38:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 4 the center of Florence was located near 19.3, -42.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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