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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 30

2020-10-06 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 135.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Textile manufacturers forecast turnover recovery by 2023

2020-10-06 14:41:00| Daily apparel & textile news and comment - from just-style.com

A quarter of textile manufacturers recently surveyed said they expect turnover to reach pre-crisis levels in 2022 and 2023.

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-10-06 10:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060857 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Delta has maintained a very deep central dense overcast during the past several hours, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures to -90C, and perhaps hints of an eye trying to emerge. On the last pass through the center, the Air Force plane reported a 4-mb pressure fall in one hour to 968 mb, with believable SFMR values of 80-85 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar data. Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC intensity forecast reflects this likelihood. However, an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast should promote weakening, and little change has been made to the intensity forecast near landfall. Delta is moving much faster this morning to the west-northwest, with the latest estimates at about 13 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge across Florida should steer the hurricane to the west-northwest or northwest during the next couple of days. Likely because of the deterioration of Gamma, model guidance is showing less poleward motion before Yucatan, and the official track is shifted to the west for the first day or so. Over the Gulf of Mexico, Delta should slow down and turn northward ahead of a trough moving eastward across Texas in a few days. Model guidance has again shifted westward, like the last cycle, and the official forecast is trended in that direction. However, it remains slightly east of the model consensus, due to a notable westward bias in some of the guidance during this hurricane season. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is a significant risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.5N 81.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-10-06 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Deep convection has persisted overnight in association with former Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, forming a well-defined central dense overcast over the center. Additionally, a 0448 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed a compact, circular wind field with at least 35-40 kt in the eastern semicircle of the system. Thus, the initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt, and the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Norbert. Norbert is presently moving northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The storm is expected to slow down later today as the steering currents collapse, and Norbert will likely meander offshore for several days before resuming a slow west-northwestward motion late in the forecast period. There remains above average spread in the track guidance given the weak steering flow, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the consensus aids. Norbert is a compact storm over very warm waters, and the limited deep-layer shear it is experiencing should allow for steady strengthening over the next couple of days. The global guidance continues to struggle with this small storm, so the latest NHC intensity forecast trends well above the consensus aids and closer to the statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance. Given the very favorable environmental conditions, it is certainly possible that Norbert could intensify even more than forecast. By day 3 and beyond, vertical wind shear is expected to increase, which could cause the storm's intensity to level off through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-10-06 10:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060853 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO DZILAM. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 81.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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