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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 29

2020-10-06 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060851 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 A 6/0630Z ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicated that Marie has refused to weaken despite the deep convection being severely sheared to the northeast of the low-level center. A solid area of 40-kt was present northwest through northeast of the center, with a couple of 45-kt vectors present. However, the 45-kt vectors look like they could have been rain enhanced, so the initial intensity remains at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Marie is expected to move slowly west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, during which time the cyclone will gradually spin down and become more vertically shallow. Thereafter, and continuing until dissipation occurs, a more westward motion is anticipated when the shallow system will be steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track is similar to but a tad north of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed consensus aids. Although Marie has managed to survive some horrendous southwesterly vertical wind of at least 30 kt, the cyclone is not long for this world due to the shear increasing further while the cyclone moves over sub-25 deg C sea-surface temperatures for the next few days. These very unfavorable environmental conditions should result in all convection being stripped away by late Tuesday morning, causing Marie to degenerate into a 35-kt post-tropical cyclone. Further weakening is anticipated, with Marie becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night and dissipating by late Friday or Saturday over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 21.7N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 29

2020-10-06 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060851 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-10-06 10:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-10-06 04:55:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060255 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the center. After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one. The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm 29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula. If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days, when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.8N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-10-06 04:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF ARTMESIA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO TULUM AND FROM RIO LAGARTOS WESTWARD TO PROGRESSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM * RIO LAGARTOS TO PROGRESSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 80.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN

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