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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 27

2020-10-05 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052046 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning. A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to 43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity. There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass. Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a trough by late this week. Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: number discussion marie storm

Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 27

2020-10-05 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052042 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 132.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 132.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number marie storm advisory

Tropical Depression Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-10-05 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 The last couple of legs of the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission and recent METOP-A and C scatterometer passes support lowering Gamma's initial intensity to 30 kt for this advisory. Conventional satellite imagery reveals that the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours and is on its way to becoming a post-tropical remnant low. Strong southerly shear and a stable, relatively dry surrounding air mass should prevent any significant convective regeneration as the system approaches the northern coast of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula tomorrow. After the remnants of Gamma makes landfall, dissipation is likely to occur Wednesday as larger, Tropical Storm Delta approaches the Yucatan Channel. The initial motion is estimated to be southwestward, or 230/4 kt. A continued southwestward or west-southwestward motion is expected through Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern Mexican State of Yucatan. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of this morning's package and is based on the various multi-model consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in areas of flash flooding. 2. Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.1N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-10-05 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 052032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-10-05 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 The convective structure of Delta has continued to improve this morning. Earlier microwave data and early-light visible satellite imagery showed that the center of the tropical cyclone re-formed farther south within the area of deep convection. Since that time, banding has continued to increase around the southern and eastern portion of the circulation, and a small CDO-like feature has formed. The intensity has been set at 40 kt, which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical storm this afternoon, which should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity, structure, and wind field. With the earlier center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/6 kt. Delta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion later today. A northwestward heading around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the south-central United States, which should weaken the western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south and west of the previous advisory during the first couple of days, primarily due to the recent center re-formation and more southward initial position. After that time, the NHC track is not much different than the previous forecast and lies near the center of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope. Delta is forecast to traverse very warm waters over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and be in a very low vertical wind shear environment during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow for significant strengthening during that time, and the NHC intensity forecast is at or above the various intensity aids. It is somewhat surprising that the intensity aids were generally a little lower this cycle, but the expected low shear and SHIPS rapid intensification index support the higher than climatological rate of intensification. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to induce some weakening later in the period. The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over the next 48-60 hours, but is similar to the previous advisory thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today or tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western Cuba by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Delta and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion delta storm

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