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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-10-06 04:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB. The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering currents will break down and the system will likely meander well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-10-06 04:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060246 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 105.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 28

2020-10-06 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 Marie is making one last grasp at holding on to tropical cyclone status. Convection has both deepened and moved closer to the center of the cyclone since the last advisory. Although this convection is still displaced well to the north of Marie's center, it appears to be sufficient to maintain advisories for the moment. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on earlier ASCAT data, assuming gradual weakening since then. This assessment may be generous, but we will likely get more scatterometer data before the next advisory. Despite its recent marginal convective resurgence, Marie is still moving over cold SSTs and through a hostile environment. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h. The aforementioned ASCAT data showed Marie was still producing a wide area of 35 kt or greater winds, and it will take a little while for the large circulation to spin down. Most of the models indicate that Marie will degenerate into a trough of low pressure in about 4 days, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.4N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 28

2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-10-06 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060231 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Gamma was entirely devoid of convection for most of the day. Shortly before sunset, a few disorganized thunderstorms developed to the southeast of the cyclone's center, however these appear to be forced at least in part by a sea breeze boundary and are not exclusively associated with Gamma. A few other small cells of convection have developed to the west of Gamma's center during the past hour or so, but not nearly enough to be considered sufficiently organized to meet the requirement for a tropical cyclone. Gamma is therefore now considered to be post-tropical and this will be the last NHC advisory. The cyclone could still produce some additional disorganized convection and periods of heavy rain overnight as it moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula, but this is not expected to result in significant regeneration. Some of this rain could impact areas that are preparing for the much more significant approach of Hurricane Delta in a day or so. The cyclone is moving southwestward near 5 kt, and this should continue for another day or so until it dissipates. The winds associated with Gamma's remnants should gradually weaken through that time, though the system could still produce a few areas of heavy rain over southeastern Mexico. It is worth noting that several model trackers, and consequently the consensus aids, depict that Gamma will move northward over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen significantly in a couple of days. This is because the trackers lose track of Gamma when it dissipates and start following nearby Hurricane Delta instead. In reality, no models forecast that Gamma will remain a well-defined cyclone for more than another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.6N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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