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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-10-06 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060231 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 120SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 88.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-10-05 22:58:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052058 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better-defined today. The associated deep convection has also become more organized and convection has persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance, including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand, the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental factors. The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week. The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering. By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-10-05 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052055 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55 kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb, much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an 18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours, increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge threat to a portion of that area. The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-10-05 22:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 052052 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 79.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-10-05 22:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 028 WTPZ24 KNHC 052050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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