Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-18 16:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005. Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 11.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-09-18 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 441 WTNT23 KNHC 181432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 32.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 32.4W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 32.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 
 

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-09-18 10:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180839 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 The depression is still not very well organized. It's surface wind circulation appears to be elongated from southwest to northeast and deep convection is mostly limited to the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. Overnight ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate both support an intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning and should provide more information about the structure of the cyclone. Confidence in the details of the track forecast remain low at this time. Due to the slow forward speed of the cyclone expected into next week, small fluctuations in the depression's heading or speed could have very large implications on any hazards experienced along the Mexico or Texas coasts. It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5 when the average NHC forecast error is about 175 and 200 miles, respectively. My long-term motion estimate is 025/5 kt, but in reality the depression's movement has been unsteady since it formed yesterday. There is still good general agreement that the system will move slowly north-northeastward for about 36 h, and then turn westward as a ridge builds over the southeast United States. The cyclone will then likely inch closer to the northern Mexico or southern Texas coasts. The details of this evolution vary greatly from model to model and the track guidance spread is higher than usual. The most certain aspect of the forecast is that the depression will not be moving anywhere very quickly well into next week. Although the depression is located within an environment supportive of intensification, only slow strengthening is likely until it gets better organized. Beyond 72 h, the cyclone will begin to interact with a cold front and the drier, more stable air behind it. This should at the very least end any intensification and could lead to weakening. Interaction with land could also cause the system to weaken. The latest statistical intensity guidance is less aggressive, but those models still show the system becoming a hurricane within a couple of days, while the dynamical hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) do not strengthen it quite that much. For now the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged and is at the top end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 22.9N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 23.7N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 24.9N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 25.7N 93.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 25.9N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 26.0N 94.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 26.3N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 26.7N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 27.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-09-18 10:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 94.1W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 94.1W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 94.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 93.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.9N 93.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.7N 93.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.9N 93.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.3N 95.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.7N 96.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 27.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 94.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

 

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 24

2020-09-18 10:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180835 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Teddy remains a powerful category 4 hurricane with a well-defined eye and intense eyewall. There have been occasional dry slots that have eroded some of the convection in the eyewall and rain bands, but these seem to be transient. The satellite intensity estimates currently range from 90 kt to 128 kt, and based on a blend of that data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. Teddy is expected to continue moving northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high pressure system. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves closer to the system. However, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left early next week and approach Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction. The major hurricane will likely maintain its intensity, or fluctuate in strength, during the next day or so while it remains in generally favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. However, the intensity models all show a slow weakening trend after that likely due to Teddy tracking over the cool SST wake left behind from Paulette and an increase in shear by early next week. Teddy is now forecast to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period based on the global model guidance. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the LGEM dynamical-statistical model. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are around 40 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.6N 55.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Sites : [406] [407] [408] [409] [410] [411] [412] [413] [414] [415] [416] [417] [418] [419] [420] [421] [422] [423] [424] [425] next »