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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-09-18 00:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 172259 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.3W AT 17/2300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.3W AT 17/2300Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 94.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-09-17 22:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 588 WTNT45 KNHC 172058 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Teddy has intensified quickly today, with the cyclone now having a more symmetrical appearance while the eye has become mostly clear. The deep convection with cloud tops ranging from -60 to -75 degrees have surrounded the eye for much of the day, and there are well-defined outflow channels to the south and east of the hurricane. Both NOAA and US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have spent time investigating Teddy today as it has been intensifying and have been able to provide very useful data in determining both the size and strength of the hurricane. The peak SFMR winds measured by the aircraft this afternoon were 113 kt, while the peak 700 mb flight-level winds were 130 kt. Based on a reduction to 117 kt from 700 mb, and assuming some slight undersampling may be occurring, the initial intensity has been raised to 120 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain in an environment of low-moderate shear while over warm waters for the 48 h or so. And since the period of rapid strengthening of Teddy appears to be ongoing, the hurricane is expected to strengthen some more into tonight. Once this round of intensification completes, there will likely be some fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles and other short term changes in structure. After 48 h, the path of Teddy should take it over some cooler waters caused by upwelling from Hurricane Paulette last week. This should cause the cyclone to slowly weaken. By 96 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal boundary. This should hasten the weakening trend of Teddy. By 120 h, the hurricane is expected to have crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm, and will begin to interact with the aforementioned mid-latitude system causing it to begin an extratropical transition that may or may not be completed by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased due to the higher initial intensity, and the forecast trends fit well with the various intensity consensus and SHIPS guidance. Teddy continues its northwestward motion, now at 11 kt. The track guidance is in very good agreement on a continuation of this motion for the next 72 h as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The model guidance has come into better agreement on the evolution of the large scale features later on in the forecast period as the hurricane is expected to recurve ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the eastern United States in a few days. The new NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is in the middle of the track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest approach to Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.1N 54.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 21.2N 55.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 28.0N 62.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 33.9N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-09-17 22:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172055 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.2N 55.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 62.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.9N 63.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 54.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-17 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172039 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 There has not been any organized deep convection near the center of Vicky in more than 12 hours as very strong vertical wind shear continues to take a toll on the cyclone. Vicky has become a swirl of low clouds and no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, the system is being declared a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Vicky. The Dvorak CI-number from TAFB suggests that the intensity of the system has fallen to 25 kt, which is the basis for the advisory wind speed. Very strong vertical wind shear associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy is expected to continue to cause the remnant low to weaken, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 24 to 36 hours. The official forecast follows suit and calls for dissipation by early Saturday. Vicky is now moving west-southwestward or 250/10 kt. The remnant low should remain on a west-southwestward heading while it is steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow over the next day or so. The latest NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids and in the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. This is the last NHC advisory on Vicky. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.1N 39.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z 19.9N 42.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-09-17 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 172036 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 39.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 39.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.9N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 39.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VICKY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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