je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-18 10:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180834 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 55.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-18 04:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180243 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055. The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument, and that remains the initial intensity. As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt. A positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. The trough is expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric high building over the south-central United States. The high should force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3 and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/ northeastern Mexico coast by day 5. There is lower-than-normal confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant spread among the track guidance. However, the models do agree on the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period. This new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48 hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier, more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in 2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that this forecast is highly uncertain. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 22.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 94.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-09-18 04:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180236 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 54.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 54.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 01:00:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 172300 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has developed a sufficiently well-defined circulation, with SFMR wind data suggesting an intensity of about 30 kt. In addition, the associated convection is organized enough for SAB and TAFB to provide Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 30 kt. Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 035/4. During the next 48 h or so, the cyclone should be steered slowly north-northeastward by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico. After that time, the global models are in good agreement that this trough will weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a weak mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west at a continued slow forward speed. Although the cyclone is relatively close to land, the vast majority of the track guidance keeps the system offshore for the next five days. The official forecast will follow this scenario, with the forecast track being between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other consensus models. The large-scale models suggest that the cyclone will be in an environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear for the next several days. Some dry air entrainment may occur after 48 h. The bulk of the intensity guidance keeps the system below hurricane strength during the forecast period. The official intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows the system peaking as a tropical storm, but it lies a little above the intensity consensus. As mentioned above, the cyclone is likely to stay offshore during the forecast period. Therefore, it is too early to tell which parts of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico will get wind, storm surge, and rain impacts from this system Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2300Z 21.9N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [407] [408] [409] [410] [411] [412] [413] [414] [415] [416] [417] [418] [419] [420] [421] [422] [423] [424] [425] [426] next »