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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-09-16 22:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 162050 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 100SE 70SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-16 22:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 There's been little change in Vicky's cloud pattern this afternoon. What's left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is displaced well to the east of the center. Cirrus clouds produced by the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged. The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to the south of the cyclone. These upper-level features are temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern which appears to be offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit. In any event, Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids. The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-16 22:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 35.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 35.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 35.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 35.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-09-16 22:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 410 WTNT44 KNHC 162042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The center of Sally continued its slow trek inland across the far western Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, and it is now located over southeastern Alabama. The satellite and radar presentation of the storm has continued to degrade, and surface observations and Doppler radar data show that winds have continued to gradually decrease. The initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt, and rapidly weakening should continue as the circulation moves farther inland. Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight or early Thursday, and degenerate into a remnant low in 36-48 hours. The system is expected to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeast U.S. coast on Friday. Sally is moving north-northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed of 6 kt. The cyclone should turn northeastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed as it become embedded within the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The dynamical models are tightly clustered and the NHC track is near the center of envelope. Although the winds and storm surge from Sally are expected to continue to subside this evening, heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to spread inland over southeastern Alabama, central Georgia, and western South Carolina over the next day or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and widespread flooding is expected across inland portions of Alabama, central Georgia and upstate South Carolina, and widespread flooding is possible across western/central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline of the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue this evening within portions of the Tropical Storm warning area in southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 31.2N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-16 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the previous and is supported by global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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