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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170831 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 85.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 85.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N 84.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.0N 81.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.1N 78.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 85.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SALLY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170243 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy has been a perplexing hurricane thus far. The infrared satellite presentation appears rather impressive, with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Despite the presentation, however, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and objective estimates range between 70-75 kt. Teddy's initial intensity is therefore set just above these estimates at 80 kt. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that Teddy's center is a little farther to the southwest than previously estimated. However, the long-term motion remains toward the northwest (315/11 kt). The track forecast remains straightforward the the next 3 days, with the guidance in good agreement that a mid-tropospheric high over the central Atlantic will drive the hurricane northwestward toward the western Atlantic. There is a little more spread among the track models on days 4 and 5, related to timing differences on exactly where and how fast Teddy begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough coming from the northeastern United States. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward during the first 3 days to account for the initial position adjustment, but otherwise it's still close to the previous prediction even with the increasing model spread on days 4 and 5. An upper-level trough situated to the northwest of Teddy is causing about 10-15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the hurricane, and some model analyses suggest that there could be stronger shear in a layer below the level of the upper-level outflow. The deep-layer shear is expected to increase a bit during the next day or so, but this should be offset by a favorable thermodynamic environment, allowing for some intensification during that time. The shear might relax by days 3 and 4, but then the thermodynamic environment becomes a little less conducive for strengthening. In particular, Teddy may move over the cold wake of Hurricane Paulette, and the SHIPS guidance indicates that relatively warm upper-level temperatures could be a negative factor. All that said, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the top end of the guidance envelope, showing Teddy peaking in intensity in a couple of days and then only gradually weakening through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.8N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-17 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170242 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-17 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170237 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has lacked deep convection for sufficiently long to be deemed a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. Satellite imagery shows a well-developed low cloud swirl that is estimated to be producing winds to 30 kt, primarily based on an earlier ASCAT pass. Karina is moving northwestward at 8 mph, and although a turn toward the west is expected the next day or so, it will remain over 23C waters. This will prevent the redevelopment of significant convection, and the cyclone is expected to gradually spin down until it becomes a trough and dissipates in a couple days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-17 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170234 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 125.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERIVCE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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