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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h, the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids. Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is still to the south of most of the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-14 11:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140954 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Corrected 4th Key Message The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the past several hours. While there was a large burst of convection earlier, it did not translate into any intensification, with flight-level reconnaissance and SFMR surface winds still supporting an initial wind speed of 50 kt. The Air Force Reserve plane did find that the size of tropical-storm-force wind field has notable grown to the north and northwest of the center. The storm still has time to intensify under a seemingly conducive environment during the next 24-36 hours, before a combination of increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate. Model guidance has come down slightly from 6 hours ago, but it has been inconsistent from cycle to cycle. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the top end of the guidance envelope. The reconnaissance plane showed that Sally took a westward turn during the past several hours, but the storm appears to have a resumed a more west-northwestward motion recently. Weak ridging over the southern United States is expected to cause this general motion with a decrease in forward speed today before the storm slowly turns northward sometime on Tuesday due to an approaching trough. Guidance is not in good agreement on exactly when that turn occurs, causing a good deal of spread for a relatively short-range forecast. The track forecast has been shifted to the left in the short-term primarily due to the initial position, showing a track near or over extreme southeastern Louisiana, then is the near the previous one at its final landfall. The bottom line continues to be that Sally is expected to be a dangerous slow-moving hurricane near the coast of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during the next 2-3 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin by late this morning. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible and widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers is likely along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 28.3N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-14 11:50:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140950 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 First-light visible satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago has continued to become better organized overnight. Scatterometer surface wind data from around 13/2200 UTC indicated that the circulation had become better defined, and that surface winds of 25-28 kt existed in the southwestern quadrant. Since then, deep convection has increased, and it is presumed that the surface winds and circulation definition have increased in response, which justifies the initiation of advisories on TD-21. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 355/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to gradually move northward today and northwestward tonight as the depression moves around the eastern end of the eastern Atlantic/west African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday and Thursday, a west-northwestward to westward motion along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge is expected. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the surprisingly tightly packed guidance envelope, and is similar to the consensus model TVCA. The depression is expected to be short-lived as a tropical cyclone. Having said that, there is a narrow window of opportunity today and tonight for the cyclone to strengthen into a tropical storm before strong westerly shear in excess of 30 kt is forecast to induce rapid weakening on Tuesday. The cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night, and then dissipate over water on Friday, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1000Z 18.5N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 19.6N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 20.5N 29.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 21.3N 30.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 21.9N 32.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 22.4N 34.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 22.8N 36.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 23.4N 41.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Beven

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-09-14 11:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140947 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 28.3W AT 14/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 28.3W AT 14/1000Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 28.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.6N 28.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 29.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.3N 30.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 32.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.4N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.8N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 28.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140917 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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