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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-07-22 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 42.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 42.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-07-22 04:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220236 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 The depression remains quite small in size and its cloud pattern consists of a compact central dense overcast and some convective bands on its west side. The latest satellite intensity estimates and a recent ASCAT pass support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A strengthening deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should cause the system to accelerate some toward the west or west-northwest during the next several days. This steering pattern should take the cyclone across the eastern Caribbean Islands and into the Caribbean Sea this weekend. The models are in fairly good agreement and there is high confidence in the track forecast. The intensity forecast is much trickier. The models continue to differ on the evolution of the depression, with the statistical-dynamical models and some of the hurricane regional models showing the system becoming a hurricane within the next few days. Conversely, the global models show little change in strength and even dissipate the system as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea. The global models seem to indicate that a combination of the cyclone's fast forward speed and associated shear, and dry air entrainment should prevent strengthening or lead to weakening. Given the large amount of uncertainty, only small changes were made to the previous prediction. This forecast lies a little below the consensus models giving slightly more weight to the global model solutions. It should be noted that small systems like Tropical Depression Seven are often difficult to predict as they are more likely to fluctuate in strength compared to larger cyclones. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 10.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 10.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 10.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 10.4N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 10.5N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 10.8N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 11.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 12.4N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 13.7N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-07-22 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220234 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 41.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 41.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 10.2N 42.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.3N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N 47.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.5N 50.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.8N 52.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 63.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-07-22 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 This afternoon's satellite presentation reveals a tropical cyclone that's struggling with the inhibiting factors from mid-level dry air intrusion. Cloud tops near the center of circulation have warmed considerably during the past few hours, and the primary convective band in the east semicircle has become a bit fragmented. A blend of an earlier SATCON of 52 kt, an ADT objective estimate of 51 kt and a Dvorak satellite classification of T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 55 kt, although the aforementioned recent changes in the cloud pattern may consider this as a bit generous. The better performing HFIP HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance still show Douglas shaking off the dry air invasion and strengthening into a hurricane in 12 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. The consensus intensity models and the FV3/GFS SHIPS show the cyclone reaching a peak intensity in around two days. Afterward, Douglas will be moving over 25-deg-C oceanic temperatures and into stable air mass. These negative contributions should, therefore, induce a slow weakening trend through day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/12 kt within the mid-tropospheric easterly steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Douglas. This ridge is forecast to gradually build westward in response to a retreating large cut-off low near the Hawaiian Islands. As a result, Douglas should progressively turn West-northwestward by late Wednesday. and this general motion is forecast to continue for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous one with only a slight adjustment to the right beyond 72 hours through 120 hours in order to conform to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.1N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-07-22 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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