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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-07-22 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has become significantly better organized since the last advisory. Visible imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast with a hint of an eye and an outer convective band in the western semicircle, while a 09Z GMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined inner convective ring feature. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to a possibly conservative 45 kt. The initial motion is now 270/10. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models. The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Gonzalo is the earliest 7th named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, beating Gert of 2005 by 2 days. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-07-22 16:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221438 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-07-22 10:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 The overall appearance of Douglas has changed little over the past several hours. Satellite images show a continuation of dry air trying to be worked out of the eastern portion of the cyclone's circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial advisory intensity remains 55 kt. The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so. Beyond 36 h, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should cause Douglas to slowly weaken. The latest NHC forecast is a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane sometime on Wednesday. Douglas is moving westward at around 13 kt. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to become oriented east-to-west while building westward over the next day or so. This should induce a gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed. This general west-northwest motion is then forecast to continue through the remainder of the 5-day period. The model guidance has trended a bit faster throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast now lies in between the clustered consensus aids and the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-07-22 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 128.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 128.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 128.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-07-22 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220832 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods. This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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