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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-09-26 12:03:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 261003 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 1000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-26 12:03:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261003 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is 10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is required to update the intensity forecast. Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments, especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning. No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the previous regular advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1000Z 15.2N 39.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-26 12:03:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 6:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 15.2, -39.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 15
2019-09-26 12:03:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261003 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 39.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM AST (1000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then anticipated on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-09-26 12:03:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261003 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 26/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 26/1000Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 39.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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