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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-26 04:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 02:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 02:37:19 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-26 04:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260235 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo, and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance through 72 hours. Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5, the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.7N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-26 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 14.7, -38.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 13
2019-09-26 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 38.1W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 38.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, followed by a turn to the north by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday, with some additional strengthening possible through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-09-26 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 260235 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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