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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-24 10:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Lorenzo was located near 12.0, -28.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-24 10:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 28.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn the northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-09-24 10:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 28.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 28.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 28.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-24 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:38:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-24 04:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240237 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Infrared satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that convection and banding has been on the increase this evening very near the the center of Lorenzo, while the existing bands that extend well away from the center have been growing in size. This improving organization supports raising the initial intensity to 45 kt, and this is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. A recent ASCAT-C overpass sampled tropical-storm-force winds that now extend up to 80 n mi in the northern semicircle and suggested that the initial wind speed could be a little conservative. Lorenzo will be in an environment favorable for intensification for the next several days. And, given the recent increase in convection near the storm's center, there is now greater confidence that Lorenzo could become a hurricane by late tomorrow. If the near-term forecast trend verifies, then it will raise confidence that Lorenzo may become a major hurricane in the medium range. Only at the very end of the forecast period does it appear that the system will begin to encounter increasing shear and some drier air, which should limit any further strengthening. The official NHC wind speed prediction shows intensification a little faster than the last forecast through the first couple of days, but is near the previous advisory thereafter. This forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected-consensus HCCA. Lorenzo is moving westward at 13 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer it generally westward to west-northwestward over the next few days. Late in the forecast period, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop between 40-45W, which should cause Lorenzo to turn to the northwest. The official NHC forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 11.6N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 12.1N 28.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 12.8N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 13.4N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 14.0N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 16.1N 41.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 22.0N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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